Popular articles

After a losing streak: cut size first, or change the strategy?

Losing streaks are inevitable in trading. This article provides a decision sequence for distinguishing a normal drawdown from a strategy that has stopped working, and explains the different responses each requires.

Brent above 100: how commodity currencies and energy instruments are repricing

Brent crude closed at 106.06 dollars on 14 October, roughly 70% higher year on year. High oil prices affect not only the direction of commodity currencies but also the cost structure of trading energy instruments.

Comparing broker spreads: why the lowest headline number fails in volatile markets

With Brent crude above 106 dollars and gold swinging by a hundred dollars in a session, trading costs have risen. This article explains why advertised minimum spreads mislead when volatility expands, and which three metrics to compare instead.

Central bank week: the Bank of Japan on 30 October and the Fed's path into year-end

The Bank of Japan announces on 30 October and is widely expected to hold while keeping December open, while the Fed is priced to wait in October and act in December. This article explains how to arrange position size and stops around a rate decision.

The real cost of chasing price after a data release: spreads and slippage

The first move after CPI, PPI or payrolls usually coincides with the worst execution conditions of the day. This article quantifies how wider spreads and slippage affect expected returns.

Correlation shifts: adjusting a multi-instrument book when the dollar strengthens

While the dollar strengthens, the correlations between gold, oil and the commodity currencies change. This article explains how to identify a correlation shift and what adjustments to make at portfolio level.

US September CPI at 3.7%: the transmission chain behind a second inflation wave

US September CPI rose to 3.7% year on year with a 0.6% monthly print, the largest in five months, and core rose 0.3% on the month. Following the chain from energy to core to expectations to policy to the exchange rate, this article traces how renewed inflation reaches the currency market.

Inflation above expectations, employment weakening: how to read conflicting data

US September CPI came in at 3.7%, above expectations, while payrolls added only 29,000, far below forecast. This article explains how to establish the real weight of policy and the exchange rate when two key releases point in opposite directions.

What is really supporting the dollar: rate differentials and positioning

The dollar index has reached an 18-month high on the combined effect of a rate advantage and positioning structure. This article explains how to use front-end yields and positioning data to judge how long dollar strength can last.

The dollar and the rate path: three variables behind the inflation rebound

US September CPI rose to 3.7% year on year with a 0.6% monthly print, the largest in five months, forcing markets to reprice the Fed's rate path. This article breaks the dollar's direction into three observable variables: the composition of inflation, front-end Treasury yields and positioning.

Dollar index at an 18-month high: how the majors move together and where they diverge

The dollar index closed at 102.53 on 14 October, an 18-month high. This article compares how the euro, sterling, the yen and the Australian dollar responded to the same driver, and explains why a broadly stronger dollar produces very different declines across pairs.

EUR/USD weekly: the battle for 1.1150 and 1.1250

After the dollar index hit an 18-month high, EUR/USD has slipped back towards 1.1150. Using 1.1150 and 1.1250 as the axis, this article sets out the directional meaning of a break, the confirmation conditions and the invalidation signals.